New record for 30 year mortgage rate

Here we go again setting new records. Freddie Mac’s weekly report said the 30-year fixed rate slipped to 4.44% for the week ended Thursday, the lowest since it began tracking the rate in 1971. Last week’s rates stood at 4.49%, and a year ago it was at 5.29%. The 15-year fixed rate fell to 3.92% this week, the lowest since Freddie Mac began tracking it 1991, down from 3.95% last week and from 4.68% a year ago. Adjustable-rate mortgages also declined, with the 5-year rate falling to 3.56% this week, the lowest since 2005 when the lender began tracking it.

Mortgage tracker Bankrate.com, which surveys large lenders across the country, said the average 30-year fixed loan sank to a record low for the fourth consecutive week, falling to 4.57% from 4.66% the previous week. The 15-year fixed rate, which is a popular option for refinancing, also fell to the lowest level in the history of Bankrate’s 25-year old survey, dipping to 4.06%, from 4.11% the week before. While the 1-year adjustable-rate mortgage held steady at 4.8% for a fourth week, the 5-year adjustable rate mortgage dropped to a record low of 3.92% from 3.95% the previous week.

Retail sales up

According to the Commerce Department, total retail sales rose 0.4% to $362.7 billion, compared with June’s 0.3% decrease. The June drop was revised from the originally reported 0.5%. The overall sales percentage gain was slightly lower than anticipated. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected sales would rise by 0.5% during the month.

Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, so retail sales and related reports are closely monitored to gauge the health of the economy. Sales excluding autos and auto parts rose 0.2% last month, in line with economists’ forecasts. In June, sales on the same basis were down 0.1%. Motor vehicle and parts sales also rose 1.6% in the month, and gasoline store sales rose 2.3%. Overall, retail sales are up 5.5% over July last year.

Lower Jumbo rates

Low interest rates may not be helping out with regular mortgages, but the higher end of the housing market is getting a boost from lower jumbo rates—mortgages of $417,000 and above. Unlike conventional mortgages, jumbo loans by definition exceed the conforming loan limit of $417,000 set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Jumbo rates are loosely tied to long term treasuries but they are traditionally higher because of the risk involved for the banks in making a larger loan.

“Sales volume for homes worth more than $1 million across the country are up more than 35% from last year at this time,” says Walter Maloney, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors (NAR). “Homes between $700,000 and a million are also on the rise by some 29% over last year. There’s no question that’s because of the historic low jumbo rates.” Just how low are the current jumbo rates? Last year at this time, a 30-year fixed jumbo rate was averaging more than 6%. It’s now at an all time low average of 5.07%. And the re-finance rate for a 30 year jumbo is currently at 5.30%. A fifteen year jumbo is at the historic low average of 4.68%. The reason for the rate decline is simple, say the experts: banks, which have a part in setting jumbo rates, have money to lend and see the benefits in doing so at lower rates.

Inflation up

The Commerce Department announced today that the Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% last month after falling 0.1% in June.. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting prices to rise 0.2%. Energy prices rose for the first time since January, as commodity and gasoline prices spiked more than 4% during the month. Food prices, however, declined 0.1% as the cost of fruits and vegetables decreased. Core CPI, which is closely watched by economists because it strips out volatile food and energy prices, edged up 0.1% for the month, in line with economists’ forecast and down from the 0.2% increase in July.

Costs for housing, clothing, cars and tobacco continued to rise during the month while prices for medical care, airline fares and household furniture slipped. Prices also rose on an annual basis in July. Overall prices rose 1.2% over the past 12 months, driven by 5.2% spike in energy costs due to higher gasoline prices. In June, overall prices edged up 1.1% from the previous year. Core CPI rose 0.9% over the past year.

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Job openings rise 7.6%

The Labor Department has said the number of job openings in January rose 7.6%, to 2.7 million, compared to December; this is the highest total since February 2009. Analysts say as many as 300,000 jobs may be added in March, a four-year high, giving rise to a hope of sustained employment gains and economic recovery. Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, says a 450,000 payroll gain in March “can’t be ruled out,” and job gains are “going to convince people of the sustainability and durability of the recovery.” Some economists have cautioned that the job gains may not happen at a rapid pace. “It’s getting better, though not as quickly as you’d like,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak. Indeed.com, which tracks job openings in 12 industries, said last week that 10 of the 12 industries posted more job openings in February than they did a year ago. “We have seen a sharp turnaround in the job market in the last few months,” said Paul Forster, CEO of Indeed.com. Among the 12 industries, hospitality and retail industries – which are critical to economic recovery – saw the biggest gains in job openings last month. When the recession began 1.7 people were competing for each opening. There are now 5.5 unemployed people, on average, competing for each job opening, against just over 6 people per opening in December 2009.

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